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EURO-DOLLAR: EURUSD initially squeezed to $1.1265 on react to the IOER cut,
followed by a quick retracement back through $1.1200 after Fed Chair Powell's
press conference was seen less dovish. Rate touched pullback lows of $1.1187,
before dip buyers cushioned ahead of the NY close.
- Moderate risk-on emerged overnight after a CNBC report citing unnamed sources
suggested a US-China bilateral trade deal could be announced by next Friday. JPY
crosses firmed across the board, EURUSD cleared $1.12.
- Bulls look to recover the 21-dma ($1.1232) to build upside momentum, targeting
broken trendline resistance & Apr 12 low at $1.1250/53.
- Support at $1.1194/89 from the Asia low & 50% retracement of $1.1112-1.1265.
Below here opens the Apr 29 low at $1.1145.
- There are a number of large option expiries for today's NY cut which could
anchor. $1.1190-00(E1.51bln), $1.1225-35(E1.75bln), $1.1250(E1.18bln).
- EZ PMI's the main focus this morning. Spain kick things off at 0715GMT,
followed by Italy, France, Germany & EZ. Manufacturing PMI's all remain below
the 50-neutral level except for Spain.