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Evergrande Contagion Fear or Just a Correction Trigger

US TSYS
The midweek FOMC policy annc out of the limelight as a global equity sell-off underpinned Tsys Monday, rate futures near session highs after the bell as China's Evergrande Real Estate Group default fears roiled markets.
  • Dec emini futures (ESZ1) were off lows at 4349.5 vs. 4293.75 low after the bell;
  • while TYZ1 held just under first resistance of 133-09.5 (20D EMA), after tapping 133-11.5 high. Rather decent volumes on orderly risk-off session, TYZ >1.3M.
  • Just a trigger for correction. Barclays analysts wrote the "possible Evergrande default could be a significant drag on the property sector" it's "far from being China's Lehman moment."
  • Otherwise -- trade was rather orderly, many accounts squared and pared, plying the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy annc -- no rate change expected, while most Fed watchers estimate a taper annc to come at the November meeting at the earliest.
  • Currently, the 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 0.2137%, 5-Yr is down 4.1bps at 0.8195%, 10-Yr is down 5.4bps at 1.3074%, and 30-Yr is down 5.2bps at 1.8471%.
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