Expectations for FQ1 ahead of today's investor / GEMM meetings (2/2)

Long-dated auctions (4 auctions):

• 4.75% Oct-43: We look for 1-2 auctions (DMO notes likely reopenings).
• 1.50% Jul-53 green gilt: We look for 1 auction after the DMO's agenda guidance.
• 4.375% Jul-54 gilt / 4.00% Oct-63 gilt: The popularity of syndication choices will influence what is sold at auction. We have yet to see the 4.00% Oct-63 gilt reopened outside of a syndication.

• DMO notes to be held in second half of April, we pencil in W/C 22 April. The DMO has noted no guidance over the maturity yet, and noted that the syndication could be either a tap or a launch.
• In terms of potential new issues the 25/35-year areas of the curve would be the most obvious choices (2048/2058/2059 maturities most likely). If there is a reopening we think the 40-year 4.00% Oct-63 gilt is most likely (which would mean the 30-year 4.375% Jul-54 gilt could be reopened at auction - but we don't rule out a second syndication here). We see an outside chance of the 50-year 1.125% Oct-73 gilt.

• 0.75% Nov-33 linker: We expect 2-3 auctions in the quarter (the DMO notes at least two)
• 0.125% Mar-39 linker: We expect 1-2 auctions in the quarter.
• 0.625% Mar-45 linker: We pencil in one reopening in the quarter but note this linker has not yet been sold at auction. It was sold via syndication twice in 2023/24 (including launch).
• 1.25% May-54 linker: Although we wouldn’t completely rule it out, we think that it might be too early to reopen the 1.25% May-54 linker via auction.