MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, January 22

MNI BRIEF: China Iron Ore Imports To Remain Positive In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Long-term Funds For Equity Market

MNI BRIEF: China To Maintian Communication With U.S. - MOFA

MNI JAN CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX 24.4 VS DEC 36.0

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY198 Bln via OMO Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: France, UK Auction on Thursday

MNI: US REDBOOK: JAN STORE SALES +4.2% V YR AGO MO

MNI: CANADA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRICES +0.2% MOM; EX-ENERGY +0.4%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Experian: 8.9Y FV

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
Credit BulletsCEEMEAHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletUK

(EXPNLN A3/A-)

  • WNG €500m 8.9Y IPT MS+135a vs. FV +98 (-37)
    • CoC, 3m par call. UoP is left open, it has single £400m due this year. Maturities are spread out.
    • Closest comp is Relx - FV is skewed tighter to Relx 33s due to Experian 34s (both '24 issuances).
    • Edenred/Rentokil are included as examples for the pickup available in equal to lower rated services. Other names include Elis/Pluxee.
  • Despite headquarters, it is US skewed (2/3 of business) and Europe light (near non-existent).
  • B2B is 73% of business, no single customer >1%, most skewed to financial services (39%).
  • Most of its services within B2B is in "data" (52% of group) - see below.
  • Stock hit an all-time high in 3Q last year.
  • 3Q trading update (3m to Dec) was organic growth of +6%
    • FY guidance unch for +6-8%. margin accretion of 30-50bp.
  • It is smaller than peer services co's (€7b in rev's) but holds similar market position in data
    • Strong history of consistent revenue growth and on high margins (EBIT 25-30%).
    • ESG positive on BS governance; net 2-2.5x target range which it hasn't moved above this decade
  • Re. recent news from US regulator, we see (small) fine as most likely (as was the result last time it had issues); https://mni.marketnews.com/3PA2swx
  • Re. AI impact it seems more a tool for it more than a threat (for now). €1.5b+/yr in operating cash flows paired with sensible equity payouts gives it headroom to invest in technology/threats.

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(EXPNLN A3/A-)

  • WNG €500m 8.9Y IPT MS+135a vs. FV +98 (-37)
    • CoC, 3m par call. UoP is left open, it has single £400m due this year. Maturities are spread out.
    • Closest comp is Relx - FV is skewed tighter to Relx 33s due to Experian 34s (both '24 issuances).
    • Edenred/Rentokil are included as examples for the pickup available in equal to lower rated services. Other names include Elis/Pluxee.
  • Despite headquarters, it is US skewed (2/3 of business) and Europe light (near non-existent).
  • B2B is 73% of business, no single customer >1%, most skewed to financial services (39%).
  • Most of its services within B2B is in "data" (52% of group) - see below.
  • Stock hit an all-time high in 3Q last year.
  • 3Q trading update (3m to Dec) was organic growth of +6%
    • FY guidance unch for +6-8%. margin accretion of 30-50bp.
  • It is smaller than peer services co's (€7b in rev's) but holds similar market position in data
    • Strong history of consistent revenue growth and on high margins (EBIT 25-30%).
    • ESG positive on BS governance; net 2-2.5x target range which it hasn't moved above this decade
  • Re. recent news from US regulator, we see (small) fine as most likely (as was the result last time it had issues); https://mni.marketnews.com/3PA2swx
  • Re. AI impact it seems more a tool for it more than a threat (for now). €1.5b+/yr in operating cash flows paired with sensible equity payouts gives it headroom to invest in technology/threats.