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Export Growth Recovering To China, Consumer Imports Robust

AUSTRALIA DATA

The trade surplus narrowed slightly in January to $11.69bn from an upwardly-revised $12.985bn due to imports outpacing exports. Both grew but imports rose 4.8% m/m and 24% y/y compared with exports up 1.4% and 16.8%. The surplus appeared to peak in November but despite this Australia’s trade position continues to look solid. Net exports contributed 1.1pp to Q4 growth.

  • Exports to China continued to recover rising 29% y/y in January from 18.2% the previous month. Exports to Japan remained solid up 23.5% y/y but to Korea they have eased to +1.1% y/y and the US +7.4% y/y.
  • Export growth is slowing after peaking at almost 40% y/y in June 2022. Exports of goods rose 1.1% m/m, driven by metal ores and minerals again, while services were up 3.1%, as the recovery in international tourism (+2.9% m/m) continued. Metal ores rose 12.8% m/m due to higher prices as volumes fell around 7.5% driven by weak demand from Korea, Japan and China. Coal exports fell 6.2% on both lower prices and volumes, and metals -7.4%.
  • Imports of goods rose 5% m/m, due to non-industrial transport equipment (+30.9%), and services +2.9%. The strong increases in consumer and capital goods imports of 11.7% m/m and 10% respectively are a very early sign that Q1 domestic demand may not be as soft as Q4. Tourism imports rose 5.2% m/m.
Australia exports to Asia y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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