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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH KOREA
Headline May trade figures for South Korea were relatively close to expectations. Export growth at -15.2% y/y, versus -16.3% forecast (-14.3% prior). Imports were -14.0% y/y (-14.4% forecast). which left the trade deficit at -$2100mn, versus -$2530mn forecast.
- The details were mixed, with exports adjusted for working-day differences down -9.3% in y/y terms, so that is better than the headline result. It's likely too early to argue this is an improving trend though.
- Chip exports remained weak, down 36% y/y, while petroleum exports were -33%. By country, most countries recorded falls. Renewed softness in China's growth indicators is likely to be a concern for the authorities around the outlook as we head into H2.
- Y/Y won FX change levels are slightly higher than that implied by headline y/y export growth but the divergence is not large, see the chart below.
Fig 1: South Korea Y/Y Export Growth Versus KRW/USD Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- The trade balance continues to show an improving trend, see the second chart below. This is in line with a better terms of trade backdrop for South Korea, as energy prices have pulled sharply lower from 2022 highs.
Fig 2: South Korea Trade Balance Trend On the Improve
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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