Export Orders Rise, Led By Tech, But Outlook Less Certain

Taiwan export orders out late yesterday, rose to +1.20% y/y, up from Feb's -10.4% reading. This was still below consensus expectations of +4.0% y/y though. This maintains somewhat of a see-saw pattern for export orders, albeit on a modestly improving trend. Y/Y growth may struggle somewhat as we progress through Q2/Q3, as export order levels peaked in Oct last year.

• Still, the detail showed positive y/y gains in March for the two biggest sub-indices, with electronics up 12%, while telecommunications rose 4.27%. Both these categories were up versus Feb outcomes. Together they represent around 63% of Taiwan's total export order base. The chart below overlays electronic export orders versus total export orders for Taiwan.
• Other segments were less positive though, still generally in negative y/y terms. By country, we saw improving y/y momentum for the US, albeit still in negative territory (-2.17%), while to China & HK we rose to 7.67% y/y (from -5.46% prior).
• Overall, an improved export trend is consistent with better reads from other strongly export orientated economies in the region like South Korea.
• Still, some uncertainty remains over the outlook. Global semiconductor sales eased in the first few months of this year. While in the US the Empire survey of 6 month ahead tech spending intentions is close to 2023 lows. There will also be focus on key earnings updates from US tech companies over the coming period.

Fig 1: Taiwan Export Trend Volatile But Improving