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Exports Miss, Imports Above Forecast, Trade Data Likely To Remain Volatile

CHINA DATA
  • China exports showed an unexpected loss of momentum for July in signs the biggest economy in the region is slowing.
  • Exports have expanded for four months consecutively but were below market expectations for July. At 7.0% yoy growth, this was significantly below expectations of 9.5% and June’s release of 8.6%.
  • Import data has remained volatile in 2024 with July’s release of 7.2% much higher than surveys of 3.2% and ahead of the prior months release of -2.3%.
  • Last month’s record trade surplus of $99bn could not be maintained, retreating to a surplus of $84bn.
  • The volatile nature of the trade data is showing the challenges ahead for China as the economy slows.
  • With the impact of the various policy initiatives yet to show in the data, and PMI's weakening, it is anticipated that the trade data will remain volatile in the coming prints.
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