Exports To China Strengthen But Still Weak To Most Of Asia

Merchandise exports rose 4.5% m/m in August driven by a 96.7% increase in non-monetary gold shipments while rural fell 2.6% and non-rural rose only 0.5%. Exports to China remain robust but continue to be weak to other major Asian trading partners.

• Exports to China rose 22.4% y/y after rising 12.9% in July. This is good news given that last year it accounted for around 29% of total exports and around 7% of GDP. However, shipments to Japan, Australia’s second largest destination, are down 38.6% y/y after -26.9%. To Korea, the third largest, they fell 42.5% y/y from -40%. Shipments to Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia were all weak while they were stronger to India and Indonesia.

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Refinitiv

• Exports to the US have been solid and have been picking up to the UK since the FTA came into effect at the end of May.
• Metal ore and mineral exports rose 4.4% m/m in August. Iron ore volumes rose 7.2% m/m after falling sharply in July while prices were close to flat. There was strength in quantities shipped across major destinations with China up 5.8% m/m and Japan +23.6%.
• Shipments of coal fell 7.5% m/m due to weakness in volumes shipped (-18.4%) whereas prices rose 4.6% after falling for some months. Quantities of thermal coal exported fell across major buyers with China down 26.7% m/m, Japan -9% and Taiwan -23.8%.
• August LNG export volumes rose 3.9% m/m after falling 1.6% whereas prices rose 3.5% after +2.3%. Strike action on the North West shelf occurred in September but Chevron has said that it didn’t impact shipments.