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Extend Lows Following Higher THan Expected S&P Global US PMIs

US TSY FUTURES

Tsy futures extend session lows after S&P Global US PMIs come out higher than expected:

    • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (50.0 vs. 49.5 est, 49.8 prior)
    • S&P Global US Services PMI (50.9 vs. 49.9 est, 50.1 prior)
    • S&P Global US Composite PMI (51.0 vs. 50.0 est, 50.2 prior)
  • Dec'23 10Y futures trade 106-03 low (-12.5) - well above initial technical support of 105-10.5 (Oct 19 low). Curves still flatter but off lows: 2Y10Y -3.246 at -23.607 vs. -26.077 low.
  • Projected rate hikes into early 2024 gain slightly: November holding at 1.6%, w/ implied rate change of +.4bp to 5.333%, December cumulative of 6.4bp at 5.393%, January 2024 cumulative 10.4bp at 5.432%, March 2024 at 6.3bp at 5.391%. Fed terminal at 5.438% in Jan'24. Fed terminal at 5.435% in Feb'24.

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