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Extending Greenback Strength Weighs On Brazilian Real

LATAM FX
  • Overall greenback strength has seen the USD index rise back above the 110 mark, narrowing the gap with Monday’s cycle high at 110.27. Starting to filter through to USDMXN which sees a small extension to fresh highs on the week at 20.07, recovering post-NFP losses.
    • LatAm FX weakness more evident in the Brazilian Real which has fallen 1% since the open. Higher US yields and a marginally hawkish comment from BCB governor overnight are weighing on the DI curve with Jan ’24 DI’s seen around 20 basis points higher.
  • From a tech standpoint as noted earlier:
  • USDMXN key short-term resistance has been defined at 20.8335, the Aug 3 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 20.2944, the Sep 1 high. Clearance if this level would instead signal scope for a stronger short-term bounce.
  • Last week’s bounce in USDBRL has resulted in a print above resistance at 5.2195, the Aug 19 high. A clear break of this hurdle is required to strengthen a bullish case and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 5.3157 initially, Aug 3 high.

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