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Extending Highs, Curves Bull Flatten, June Projected Rate Cut Gains

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are currently extending session highs ahead midday, curves bull flattening (2s10s -3.822 at -43.141 -- Jan 3 low). No obvious headline driver, desks widely citing a (modest) reversal in equities - particularly IT sector shares that got us here in the first place - for the bid in rates.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures had tested Thursday lows overnight (109-09) are now nearing the 110 handle at 109-29.5 (+13.5), 10Y yield -.0668 at 4.2539%. Heavy volumes (TYH4>2.8M) tied to the roll to Jun'24 contract continues. Technical resistance above at 110-15.5 (20-day EMA).
  • Projected rate cut pricing holding steady for the next couple meetings while June is off this morning's lows: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -2.0% w/ cumulative of -0.5bp at 5.324%; May 2024 at -21.2% w/ cumulative -5.8bp at 5.271%; June 2024 -62.6% vs. -55.4% earlier w/ cumulative cut -21.4bp at 5.132%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
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