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Extending Modest Sell-Off Ahead of Payrolls, First Post-FOMC Fedspeak

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have cheapened after a late open following a national holiday in Japan. It's led by the front end with only a partial recovery in Fed Funds implied rates after sliding yesterday on regional bank concerns (with cuts to year-end pulling back to 85bps at typing from over 100bps at one point yesterday).
  • 2YY +3.5bp at 3.823%, 5YY +2.5bp at 3.354%, 10YY +2.6bp at 3.405% and 30YY +2.4bp at 3.754%.
  • TYM3 trades 15+ ticks lower at session lows of 116-02+, having pushed lower through European hours after particularly narrow ranges, but with still subdued volumes of 200k ahead of today’s NFP print. Support seen at 115-31 (Thu low) and 115-17+ (May 3 low).
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (’23 voter) speaks 1245ET ahead of Bullard (non-voter) at a Minneapolis event, neither with text. Gov Cook (voter) also at 1300ET with text but in a commencement address which could limit mon pol discussions.
  • Data: Nonfarm payrolls (0830ET, preview here), Consumer credit (1500ET)

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