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MNI Payrolls Preview: Eyeing Continued Moderation

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  • Bloomberg consensus looks for further moderation in payrolls growth in April with 180k for its softest since Dec’20, with less clear-cut potential impacts from weather and seasonal adjustment this month.
  • JOLTS data saw a second month of lower-than-expected job openings but ADP employment was almost twice as strong as expected in April at +296k and has rarely overshoot payrolls over the past year.
  • Aside from the strength and breadth of payrolls, we watch the usual details including the u/e rate (survey hints sizeable hawkish skew) and AHE growth (smaller hawkish skew).
  • We see a bias towards a greater market reaction in the event of softer details, with a potential further pulling forward of cut pricing. However, coming straight after the latest FOMC decision, a strong report could start lining up expectations of eking out another hike in June if next week’s CPI also comes in hotter.



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