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Eyeing Downside Test Of Late Apr Lows As BoJ Reduced 5-10 JGB Purchases

JGBS

JGB futures maintain a firm downside bias in afternoon dealings. We were last around 143.92, -.34. This is slightly up from session lows (143.86). April 26 lows rest back at 143.61. Beyond that lies 143.44, which is a key support point.

  • Sentiment has remained weak since the BoJ bond buying op curtailed purchases in the 5-10yr tenor space compared with the late April operation (by ¥50bn). Whilst the amount purchased was still within the projected range for the current quarter it will likely sharpen focus around the likelihood of reduced purchases as we progress further into 2024.
  • USD/JPY dipped initially on the news, but hasn't seen any downside follow through. The latest from our Tokyo Policy team notes risks the weaker yen trend could hasten the policy tightening process (see this link).
  • In the cash JGB space, the 10yr yield is above 0.94%, +3bps higher. From the 5 yr to 40yr tenor we are around 3bps in yield terms. 10yr swap is above 1.01%, while the 20 and 30yr tenors are up 5bps in yield terms.
  • Tomorrow, we have the PPI for April, along with the 5yr debt auction.
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