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Eyeing Fresh YTD Highs Just Under 138.00

JPY

Yen was the weakest performer in the G10 space for Monday's session. USD/JPY gained just under 0.90% to around 137.50, which is where we currently track. We saw broad based USD strength for the session, with a firmer US yield backdrop weighing on yen sentiment. This came post a solid bounce in the ISM prices paid component during NY trade. The headline ISM also came in a touch firmer than expected.

  • USD/JPY is now eyeing previous YTD highs on Mar 8 at 137.91. The pair is above its simple 200-day MA, which is close to the 137.00 level. This region may act as a support point on any downside pull backs. Dec 2022 highs rest just above 138.00, beyond that the 140.00 level.
  • In the vol space, the 1 month implied is close to recent lows, last around 9.65%. The 1 month risk reversal holding at -0.84, back to mid Dec highs from last year.
  • This week's Fed meeting is close to fully priced, while relative yield momentum is back in favor of the USD post last Friday's BoJ meeting.
  • On the data front today we just have Apr monetary back figures, which is unlikely to shift sentiment.
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