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STIR: Eyeing Most Amount Of 2025 Fed Cuts Priced In January To Date

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold most of the overnight push lower seen after President Trump said he’d “rather not to use” the “tremendous power” of tariffs on China.
  • A next 25bp cut from the Fed more firmly leans towards the June meeting (24.5bp priced) whilst the 42.5bp for 2025 as whole reached 44bp at one point for close to the most amount of cuts priced for the month to date.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 7bp Mar, 14.5bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 29.5bp Jul and 42.5bp Dec.
  • Today’s macro docket sees focus on the January flash PMIs at 0945ET before the finalized U.Mich survey for January at 1000ET. Analysts look for a small paring of the surprisingly sharp increase to 3.3% from the flash of 5-10Y inflation expectations, its highest since 2008. The preliminary increase from 3.0% in Dec was “only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have exhibited such a large one-month change.”
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold most of the overnight push lower seen after President Trump said he’d “rather not to use” the “tremendous power” of tariffs on China.
  • A next 25bp cut from the Fed more firmly leans towards the June meeting (24.5bp priced) whilst the 42.5bp for 2025 as whole reached 44bp at one point for close to the most amount of cuts priced for the month to date.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jan, 7bp Mar, 14.5bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 29.5bp Jul and 42.5bp Dec.
  • Today’s macro docket sees focus on the January flash PMIs at 0945ET before the finalized U.Mich survey for January at 1000ET. Analysts look for a small paring of the surprisingly sharp increase to 3.3% from the flash of 5-10Y inflation expectations, its highest since 2008. The preliminary increase from 3.0% in Dec was “only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have exhibited such a large one-month change.”
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