EZ ESI Better Than Expected in February

Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI): 93.4; Prev (Jan): 91.5

Consumer: -14.8(Jan: -15.5); Industry: -3.3 (Jan: -6.1); Services: -17.1 (Jan: -17.7); Retail: -19.1 (Jan: -18.5); Construction: -7.5 (Jan: -7.7)

• The EZ ESI ticked up 1.9pt to 93.4 in Feb, showing the highest level since Mar 2020 and coming in stronger than markets expected (BBG: 92.0).
• Among the largest EZ economies, the ESI saw the largest gains in Poland (+4.7pt), Italy (+4.4pt) and Germany (+3.0pt), while it fell sharply in Spain (-3.2pt) and to a lesser extent in the Netherlands (-1.3pt).
• Industrial sentiment was the main driver of Feb's increase, rising to the highest level since Mar 2019 at -3.3.
• In line with the flash estimate, consumer confidence ticked up to -14.8, but remains well below the pre-pandemic level.
• While service confidence edged slightly higher by 0.6pt to -17.1, retail trade sentiment fell further to -19.1, its lowest level since Jun 2020.
• Both indicators remain far below the pre-crisis level as tight restrictions weigh on business activity in both sectors.
• The construction sector saw a small uptick in sentiment to -7.5, up from -7.7 seen in January.
• The employment expectations index increased to a four-month high of 90.9 in Feb, following Jan's decline to 89.1.

Source: European Commission