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(Z1) Remains Below Recent Highs

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Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI): 119.0; Prev (Jun): 117.9

Consumer: -4.4(Jun: -3.3); Industry: +14.6 (Jun: +12.8); Services: +19.3 (Jun: +17.9); Retail: +4.6 (Jun: +4.7); Construction: +4.0 (Jun: +5.2)

  • The EZ ESI rose 1.1pt to 119.0 in July, coming in stronger than markets expected (BBG: 118.5).
  • The index rose to the highest level since records began in 1985 and recorded the sixth consecutive gain.
  • Jul's increase was led by the industrial and service sector, which rose by 1.8pt and 1.4pt, respectively.
  • Industrial sentiment recorded a new all-time high, while the service sector posted the highest level since 2007.
  • The other three sub-indicators saw a monthly decline in Jul, with consumer sentiment dropping 1.1pt, while retail trade confidence was down 0.1pt.
  • Confidence in the construction sector eased by 1.2pt in July, marking a three-month low.
  • The report noted that Jul's improvement was weaker than in previous months, suggesting that the index is approaching its peak.
  • The ESI rose markedly in France (+4.0pt) and Italy and Spain (both up +1.7pt) and ticked up as well slightly in Germany (+0.3pt), while the headline index fell in the Netherlands (-0.3pt) and Poland (-0.7pt).
  • The employment expectations index remained at Jun's level of 111.7 in Jul, which is the highest level since Nov 2018.

Source: European Commission