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Factory Orders Post Healthy May Expansion

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY MAY FACTORY ORD +6.4% M/M (FCST +1.0%); APR +0.2% M/M

GERMANY MAY FACTORY ORD -4.3% Y/Y (FCST -9.7%); APR -9.3% Y/Y

  • German manufacturing new orders jumped +6.4% m/m in May, significantly outpacing consensus expectations of a +1.0% m/m uptick. May 2023 orders were down -4.3% y/y.
  • Excluding large-scale orders, German factory orders still rose a healthy +3.2% m/m.
  • Automotives increased +8.6% m/m, whilst "other transport equipment" (aircraft, ships, military vehicles) jumped +137.1% m/m due to large-scale orders.
  • In contrast, electrical equipment tumbled by -15.0% m/m, implying demand across sectors was divergent and volatile.
  • Looking forward, the June manufacturing PMI found new orders fell at the sharpest rate in eight months. Yet with Destatis' metric for order backlogs implying 7.3 months of production in April, German order backlogs remain around 1.5 months above pre-pandemic levels. As such, current production should be comfortably bolstered by past demand for now.
  • Tomorrow's German industrial production print expected to be flat in May, with weak construction the main drag.

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