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Failure at $1.2140/60 Favours Downside.

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Recovery off Wednesday's pullback low of $1.2059 picked up fresh impetus through Thursday's NY session but faltered around $1.2140(61.8% $1.2190-1.2059; high $1.2142).
  • Re emergence of risk appetite aided the recovery though market remained wary, the rate easing off into the close to $1.2120.
  • Asia moved against risk, extended the pullback to $1.2095 , with rate languishing around $1.2100 into Europe.
  • Minor support noted between $1.2090/80, a break to expose the area of recent lows between $1.2059/54. Resistance remains between $1.2140/60(61.8%-76.4% $1.2190-1.2059), a break needed to bring the recent high at $1.2190(MNI Techs: Clearance of 1.2190, Jan 22 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme) back into the picture.
  • Month-end and models suggesting a neutral outlook at the fixes, though we await updates on this. Equity markets remain the barometer of risk. Traders note increased chatter concerning US fiscal stimulus. COVID vaccine developments also a key factor for risk.
  • France and Germany GDP provides the European opening data interest (0630GMT/0700GMT respectively). Germany Unemployment at 0855GMT, EZ M3 at 0900GMT. US Personal Income/Spending, PCE at 1330GMT, MNI Chicago PMI 1445GMT, UofM and Pending Home Sales at 1500GMT.
  • Fed speakers emerge after Europe close, Fed Kaplan (non-voter) at 1800GMT and 2100GMT. Fed Daly(dove) 2225GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD maintains a softer tone despite still trading above the Jan 18 low of 1.2054. A breach of this support would signal a resumption of the down leg that has been in place since the Jan 6 high. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2011, Sep 1 high and the psychological 1.2000 handle. A move below 1.2000 would open 1.1976, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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