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Falling Job Openings Push Back On Early Attempt At Cheapening

US TSYS
  • Treasuries unwind a prior cheapening on JOLTS showing a sharp decline in the ratio of openings to unemployed (from 1.97 to 1.67, still elevated but moving closer to pre-taper levels).
  • It leaves a belly-led rally on the day with yields -5-6.5bps across 2-10Y tenors with only the very long end underperforming.
  • The front-end continues to reflect a cooling in Fed rate expectations, especially in 2H23, with the terminal currently at 4.43% (-2bp on the day) but Dec’23 at 4.06% (-8bp), all potentially with an eye on tomorrow's ISM services after the mfg miss and less so ADP.
  • Up next is first appearance from Fed Gov. Jefferson at 1145ET.
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