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Familiar ECB Speak Does Little for Pricing, Modest Hawkish Post-NFP Moves Moderates

STIR

The previously outlined appearance by ECB Governing Council members Knot, Kazimir, Vasle and Vujcic signals comfort with current policy settings, with some suggestions that fiscal policy should be tighter (a familiar line of thought from the Bank in recent times and coming from the usually hawkish Knot).

  • ECB-dated OIS generally sits around pre-U.S. NFP release levels, moderating from post-data hawkish extremes as core global FI stabilises away from session cheaps.
  • Liquid contracts are little changed to ~2bp firmer on the day.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.910+1.0
Dec-233.923+2.3
Jan-243.916+1.6
Mar-243.868-3.2
Apr-243.797-10.3
Jun-243.702-19.8
Jul-243.596-30.4
Sep-243.485-41.5
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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