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Feb CPI Preview: Analysts Uncertain On Food Prices Ahead Of Feb CPI

NORWAY
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Norwegian February CPI-ATE is expected to print unchanged at 5.3% Y/Y, as is headline rate (at 4.7% Y/Y). An in line print would still be below the Norges Bank's December MPR forecast, though these projections are now stale, with an updated set due at the March 21 Monetary Policy meeting.

  • There is uncertainty around the development of food prices (which are included in the CPI-ATE rate), with February usually coinciding with bi-annual price setting amongst grocers.
  • Barring a large downward surprise in CPI-ATE, we do not think February's inflation reading alone will change the picture much for the Norges Bank.
  • Inflation is still running significantly above target and the Norges Bank are also cognizant of the 2024 wage negotiation round, which begins next Friday.
  • EURNOK has been rangebound between 11.3000 and 11.5000 since mid-January. A CPI-ATE surprise in either direction may see these levels tested, though persistent breaches would likely need external forces working in the same direction as well.

Bloomberg Consensus: CPI-ATE 5.3% Y/Y; CPI 4.7% Y/Y

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Norwegian February CPI-ATE is expected to print unchanged at 5.3% Y/Y, as is headline rate (at 4.7% Y/Y). An in line print would still be below the Norges Bank's December MPR forecast, though these projections are now stale, with an updated set due at the March 21 Monetary Policy meeting.

  • There is uncertainty around the development of food prices (which are included in the CPI-ATE rate), with February usually coinciding with bi-annual price setting amongst grocers.
  • Barring a large downward surprise in CPI-ATE, we do not think February's inflation reading alone will change the picture much for the Norges Bank.
  • Inflation is still running significantly above target and the Norges Bank are also cognizant of the 2024 wage negotiation round, which begins next Friday.
  • EURNOK has been rangebound between 11.3000 and 11.5000 since mid-January. A CPI-ATE surprise in either direction may see these levels tested, though persistent breaches would likely need external forces working in the same direction as well.

Bloomberg Consensus: CPI-ATE 5.3% Y/Y; CPI 4.7% Y/Y

Keep reading...Show less