Feb IP Beat Confirms Survey Outperformance

Spanish February industrial production surprised to the upside, printing at 1.5% SWDA Y/Y (vs -0.4% cons). Last month’s release was also revised higher, to 0.3% Y/Y (vs -0.6% initially).

• The print confirms the outperformance that has been signalled in recent Spanish survey data, with the manufacturing PMI and the EC industry survey both rising in February.
• Looking ahead, the manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory in March (51.4 vs 51.5 in February). While the EC’s industry survey was contractionary at -5.6 (vs -4.5 in Feb), it remained above the 2023 average of -6.6.
• On a 3m/3m SWDA basis, IP has been positive for the last 5 months, printing at 0.6% in February (vs 0.7% prior).
• Looking at the sub-components, consumer goods drove this month’s strength in the annual print, rising 3.3% Y/Y (vs -0.6% prior).
• On an SWDA monthly basis, production rose 0.7% M/M (vs 0.2% cons, a 0.2pp upwardly revised 0.6% prior).
• Spain only makes up around 8% of Eurozone industrial production (February data due April 15), with Germany’s data (April 8) carrying a much more significant 39% weighting.