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Feb Labour Market Data Signals Continued Robustness

SWEDEN
MNI (London)

SWEDEN FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SA 7.6% (FCST 7.3%); JAN 7.3%

Despite the upside surprise of a 0.3pp uptick in Swedish SA unemployment to 7.6%, the February report details continued labour-market robustness.

  • Long-term unemployment fell further, and seasonally adjusted and smoothed data signalled further increases in the employment rate (+0.3pp to 68.2%), labour force participation (+0.5pp to 74.2%) and hours worked.
  • The February unemployment rate is largely in line with the Riksbank's February projections, which look for the unemployment rate to average 7.66% in Q1, gradually edging up over the year to 8.26% in Q4.
  • Swedish inflation surprised to the upside in February, with the Riksbank's closely-watched CPIF (ex. direct effects of monetary policy) accelerating and a notable 0.6pp jump in CPIF ex. energy to +9.3% y/y.
  • As such, continued labour market resilience alongside the February CPI beat will underline confidence of Riksbank hawks ahead of their April 25 meeting, for which both 50bp and 75bp hikes are on the table.

Source: Statistics Sweden

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