February CPI & Retail Sales Highlights Of Week

The focus of the week will be the February CPI and retail sales data scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

• Westpac consumer sentiment data for March are due on Tuesday and it may pick up again with the RBA dropping its implicit tightening bias last week. The Westpac leading indicator for February is out on Wednesday.
• February CPI is released on Wednesday with a small pick up to 3.5% y/y from 3.4% expected. Forecasts range from 3.3% to 3.8%. Melbourne Institute inflation expectations for March print on Thursday, which were stable at 4.5% last month.
• Thursday sees February retail sales, which have been volatile in recent months due to changes in seasonal spending patterns. They are expected to rise 0.4% m/m after +1.1% in January. Estimates are in a broad range from -0.2% to +0.7%.
• There are also Q1 job vacancies on Thursday, which will be watched closely for further signs of labour market easing after last week’s very strong February jobs data. The Q1 average to date of SEEK new jobs ads is down 1% q/q and applicants per job are at their highest since Covid.
• RBA private sector credit data for February is on Thursday too. Also RBA’s Connolly, Head of Payment Policy will appear at the AFR Banking Summit on Tuesday at 1320 AEDT.