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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SWEDEN
Swedish CPIF is expected to moderate markedly in February, driven largely by base effects in core goods and food components.
- CPIF ex-energy is expected to fall to 3.6% Y/Y (vs 4.4% prior). The Riksbank had forecasted 3.7% Y/Y in the November MPR, and the last 3 readings have all printed below the November forecasts.
- February 2023 saw strong M/M price rises (Goods ex-food: 1.8% M/M, Food: 2.3% M/M), which analysts expect to moderate to more "normal" seasonal patterns (0.5 to 0.6% M/M).
- Services inflation is expected to remain elevated in February, though analysts point to further disinflation in the months ahead, particularly when looking at recent survey evidence on business pricing plans.
- Given the Riksbank's dovish pivot at the Jan/Feb monetary policy meeting, a lower-than-expected reading will increase calls for a rate cut as early as May amongst analysts.
- However, even in this scenario, we still wouldn't expect the Riksbank to pre-commit to a rate cut at its March meeting, given the negative ramifications this would have on the SEK.
- For a selection of analyst comments, see below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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