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February IP, Retail Sales Due at 1600BST

COLOMBIA
  • BanRep will release its economists’ survey later today, while February industrial production, manufacturing production and retail sales will also cross at 1600BST(1100ET). Analysts expect IP to fall by 0.8% y/y (vs. -1.5% prior), while manufacturing production declines by 2.8% y/y (vs. -4.3% prior). Retail sales are expected to fall by 2.7% y/y, following a 3.9% drop in January.
  • The data come ahead of BanRep’s next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for April 30. On Friday, Governor Villar said that the central bank is trying to cut rates at a pace that doesn’t surprise markets, which could potentially trigger capital outflows. The Governor remains concerned about above target inflation expectations, but noted that if the inflation outlook improves then the pace of rate cuts could accelerate.
  • Meanwhile, President Petro warned on Friday that private pension funds will go bankrupt if the government pension reform bill is not approved by congress. He also said that the country needs to raise public investment as private investment is lagging due to high real interest rates, adding that he expects BanRep to cut rates significantly to boost economic growth. To help ease short-term foreign debt payments, he has asked Finance Minister Bonilla to meet with the IMF’s Georgieva to discuss payments of the country’s flexible credit line.
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