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February IPCA-15 Inflation Scheduled For 1200GMT/0700ET

  • Consumer prices as measured by the IPCA-15 index are expected to have risen 0.87% in February on a monthly basis, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, compared to a 0.58% increase in prior reading.
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.87%, prior 0.58%
    • Feb. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 10.63%, prior 10.20%
  • JPMorgan note the February inflation preview (IPCA-15) should add visibility on the impact of indexation mechanisms in some large-weight components of the services CPI basket, particularly education fees. So far, JPM expect above consensus inflationary pressures to keep inflation high at least up to April.
  • Analysts will play close attention to the numbers for clues on the potential magnitude of the next Selic rate hike by the Copom. For reference, the BCB have signalled a deceleration from their 150bp hiking pace and markets are currently seeing a 100bp hike in March as the most likely outcome.
  • The latest commentary from BCB Governor Campos Neto indicates he believes the global inflation trend is still growing, with persistent energy shocks but that inflation will start to drop faster in April-May.

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