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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed today for 2023 meetings but beyond that have seen solid increases, especially for 2H24.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: 0bp for tomorrow (unch), +7.5bp for Nov (-0.5bp on the day) and +11.5bp to a terminal 5.44% that is now tied in both Dec’23 (unch) and Jan’24 (+1bp).
- Cuts from terminal 25bp to Jun’24 (from 28bp) and 82bp to Dec’24 (from 88bp). On the latter, the SFRU3/Z4 of -81bp is within 10bp of inversion lows seen in mid-March in the fallout from regional bank woes at levels otherwise not seen since Oct 2022.
- Coming ahead of a revised dot plot tomorrow, the implied effective rate of 4.63% for Dec’24 has pushed above the 4.58% figure implied in the June dot assuming an 8bp spread over the lower bound.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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