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Fed 2H23 Rates Continue Drift Lower Off Highs

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have drifted lower overnight as the terminal continues to pull back from post-CPI highs of 5.29% and tilt nearer pre-CPI levels of 5.18%.
  • 26bp for Mar (-0.5bp), cumulative 46bp for May (-1bp), 64bp to a 5.22% terminal in Jul (-1.5bp) before holding a similarly limited 21bps of cuts to 5.01% for Dec (-4bp).
  • Three separate Fed speakers today all with text. Mester (’24 voter) and Bullard (non-voter) for the first time since the Feb FOMC, payrolls and CPI whilst the only current voter is Gov. Cook late on at 1600ET who said Feb 8 the strength of payrolls was a surprise but can’t put too much weight on one data point.


Source: Bloomberg

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