September 13, 2023 14:10 GMT
Fed 2H24 Cut Expectations Re-Widen On CPI
- Fed Funds implied rates still see some volatility after US CPI, coming off lows seen after quickly reversing the spike higher on the release, but with the main takeaway being only a small decline in near-term rate expectations before a building of cut expectations for 2H24.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: now just +1bp for next week’s FOMC, +10.5bp to Nov and +12.5bp to Dec for a terminal 5.46%.
- Cuts from terminal: 33bp to Jun’24 and 100bp to Dec’24 having pushed to recent lows of 95bps ahead of the release.