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FED: Bostic Continues To Cast A Cautious Tone, Logan / Schmid In Focus Monday

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Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic continued to cast a more cautious tone on the near-term rate outlook, saying that "we are not in a rush to neutral". On that topic, he repeated he sees the neutral rate somewhere in a range between 3% and 3.5% and showed support for a patient approach to setting the policy rate. 

  • He'd noted late last week post-CPI data that he'd be "totally comfortable" with skipping a cut in November, though overall this was consistent with his Dot Plot base case of 1 more 2024 cut anyway. Overall he he expects inflation to converge to 2% next year and noted "labor markets are strong. They're a little weaker than they were a year ago, but they're not weak."
  • Bostic's commentary brought little new, and thus little reaction in rate markets - more interesting will be appearances Monday by FOMC members Logan and, especially, Schmid - both relatively hawkish participants.
  • Logan said last week that while she openly supports the decision to start cutting rates in September, she might have preferred a more cautious 25bp move initially.
  • We haven't heard from Schmid on monetary policy since August 22, but based on that appearance we'd guess he is one of the two or three most hawkish members of the Committee - and he is a 2025 voter.

 

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Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic continued to cast a more cautious tone on the near-term rate outlook, saying that "we are not in a rush to neutral". On that topic, he repeated he sees the neutral rate somewhere in a range between 3% and 3.5% and showed support for a patient approach to setting the policy rate. 

  • He'd noted late last week post-CPI data that he'd be "totally comfortable" with skipping a cut in November, though overall this was consistent with his Dot Plot base case of 1 more 2024 cut anyway. Overall he he expects inflation to converge to 2% next year and noted "labor markets are strong. They're a little weaker than they were a year ago, but they're not weak."
  • Bostic's commentary brought little new, and thus little reaction in rate markets - more interesting will be appearances Monday by FOMC members Logan and, especially, Schmid - both relatively hawkish participants.
  • Logan said last week that while she openly supports the decision to start cutting rates in September, she might have preferred a more cautious 25bp move initially.
  • We haven't heard from Schmid on monetary policy since August 22, but based on that appearance we'd guess he is one of the two or three most hawkish members of the Committee - and he is a 2025 voter.