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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have unwound an intraday lift and are back close to where they were at the NY crossover, although a tilt higher further out to 2024 sees new recent lows for cut expectations.
- It sees a rate path hold about half of yesterday’s retail sales induced increase for near-term meetings but implied rates for later into 2024 has slightly extended those increases.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1.5bp Nov (-1.5bp on the day), +10.5bp Dec (-1bp) and +14bp Jan for a terminal 5.47% (-1bp).
- Cuts from terminal: 23bp to Jun’24 and 68bp to Dec’24, the latter on track for closing at a new low for recent months, pushing below the 71bp seen after the hawkish Fed dot plot on Sep 20 even if the Dec’24 rate of 4.79% remains below the 2024 median dot of 5-5.25%.
- Fedspeak recap: Hawkish commentary from Gov. Waller, including: robust supercore in the last two months is not at a level needed to make progress toward our goal and we need to watch and see if these numbers indicate that inflation is reaccelerating; additional policy tightening would likely be needed if the real economy continues showing underlying strength and inflation appears to stabilize or reaccelerate, and don’t want to address rate cuts when hikes not stopped).
- NY Fed’s Williams meanwhile noted there are still a ways to go despite inflation progress and need to keep rate restrictive for some time.
- Still to come, Harker ahead on workforce challenges at 1515ET and Gov. Cook on the Fed’s mandate at 1855ET, both with text. Plenty more Fedspeak lined up tomorrow, headlined by Powell at the Economic Club of NY, including prepared remarks.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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