Fed Cut Pricing Steady, Raft Of Speakers Eyed

FOMC-dated OIS pricing is little changed vs. levels seen late on Wednesday.

• Markets price ~90bp odds of a 25bp cut through the June ’24 FOMC (~22.5bp of easing seen over that horizon).
• Beyond there, ~37.5bp of cuts are priced through the July gathering, while ~86.5bp of cuts are showing through ’24 on the whole.
• A degree of caution re: the prospect of imminent rate cuts remained evident in the minutes covering the Jan ’24 FOMC.
• Discussions setting the scene/timeline for QT decisions also generated interest.
• Elsewhere, Fedspeak from Barkin & Bowman dovetailed with an unwind of some rate cut pricing in the European front end/pressure in the wider bond markets, which allowed some rate cut premium to be removed on Wednesday.
• A reminder that participants did not want to probe the 75bp of cuts in’24 mark post-PPI data (last week), with that marker in line with the median FOMC dot (as of the Dec ’24 FOMC).
• A raft of Fedspeak (Jefferson, Cook, Harker & Kashkari) will be further supplemented by the release of the weekly jobless claims data and flash PMI prints in NY hours.