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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings continue to be weighed by Wednesday’s CPI report, but beyond that have continued to shake off the decline seen with 2024 rate cut expectations at new recent lows.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1bp for Wednesday, +9bp for Nov and +12bp for Dec to terminal 5.45%.
- Cuts from terminal: 29bp to Jun’24 (from 31bp at yesterday’s close) and 91bp to Dec’24 (from 94bp).
- It means the implied 4.54% effective rate for Dec’24 is within 5bps of the Fed’s 4.5-4.75% median 2024 dot from the June SEP assuming the current 8bp spread to the lower bound is maintained.
- Looking at SOFR for a cleaner historical comparison, the SFRU3/Z4 spread of -92bps continues to set fresh lows for inversion since shortly after the regional banking woes of March at levels last seen in Oct’22.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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