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Fed Expectations Near Yesterday Lows Ahead Of Fedspeak

STIR FUTURES
  • Hike expectations sit near yesterday’s lows after they slid through the US session from a cumulative 102bps to 97bps for July.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures show 51bp for Jun, 97bps for Jul, 134bp for Sep and 183bps to year-end, implying a year-end rate almost 30bps lower than shortly before last week’s FOMC.
  • Six FOMC members speaking today, starting with a speech from NY Fed’s Williams (voter) at 0740ET with prepared remarks and moderated Q&A in potentially the first comments on mon pol post-FOMC.
  • Mester (’22 voter) is the only other first time post-FOMC speaker at 1500ET, with the other four repeat visits from Barkin (’24), Waller (voter), Kashkari (’23) and Bostic (’24).

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