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FED: Eying A November Pause, Atlanta's Bostic Effectively Closes Door On 50bp

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The hawkish market reaction to Bostic's post-CPI comment about being "totally comfortable" with skipping a November cut ("elements of today's report ... I think validate that view [to perhaps pause in Nov]") is understandable as we digest the latest NFP/CPI data's implications. Especially so since Bostic is a voter at the final two meetings of the year.

  • Though it should be put into context: Bostic's Dot Plot submission last month had just 1 more cut this year, so his base case was already a skip at one remaining 2024 meeting or the other.
  • He doesn't seem to have a base case for November yet (also adding the Fed could cut in either - or both - Nov and Dec - the latter of which would be a dovish outcome versus his Dot submission). And he's been one of the more hawkish-leaning FOMC members of late anyway, one of the 6 or 7 most hawkish out of 19 FOMC members, per MNI's Hawk-Dove matrix.
  • Given the above it was a fair assumption even before today's data that he had eyed a "skip" in November, given strong payrolls -  it would remain to be seen whether he would dissent to a 25bp cut if Chair Powell so supported (we doubt it) - but he has sounded fairly agnostic throughout.
  • In a way, the most hawkish element of his comments is that he's clearly no longer entertaining potential for a second 50bp cut in November - which he said in late September he'd be open to supporting if jobs data surprised to the downside (he also said that the Fed wasn't in a "mad dash" to cut rates).  
  • We are getting some great new Fed terminology today though: Bostic called the month-to-month data swings "janky", NY's Williams said disinflation was still the trend despite "wiggles".
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The hawkish market reaction to Bostic's post-CPI comment about being "totally comfortable" with skipping a November cut ("elements of today's report ... I think validate that view [to perhaps pause in Nov]") is understandable as we digest the latest NFP/CPI data's implications. Especially so since Bostic is a voter at the final two meetings of the year.

  • Though it should be put into context: Bostic's Dot Plot submission last month had just 1 more cut this year, so his base case was already a skip at one remaining 2024 meeting or the other.
  • He doesn't seem to have a base case for November yet (also adding the Fed could cut in either - or both - Nov and Dec - the latter of which would be a dovish outcome versus his Dot submission). And he's been one of the more hawkish-leaning FOMC members of late anyway, one of the 6 or 7 most hawkish out of 19 FOMC members, per MNI's Hawk-Dove matrix.
  • Given the above it was a fair assumption even before today's data that he had eyed a "skip" in November, given strong payrolls -  it would remain to be seen whether he would dissent to a 25bp cut if Chair Powell so supported (we doubt it) - but he has sounded fairly agnostic throughout.
  • In a way, the most hawkish element of his comments is that he's clearly no longer entertaining potential for a second 50bp cut in November - which he said in late September he'd be open to supporting if jobs data surprised to the downside (he also said that the Fed wasn't in a "mad dash" to cut rates).  
  • We are getting some great new Fed terminology today though: Bostic called the month-to-month data swings "janky", NY's Williams said disinflation was still the trend despite "wiggles".