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FED: Fed Rates Awaiting PPI Before A Hawkish Bowman

FED
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold within yesterday’s ranges ahead of PPI, giving back some of the hawkish reaction to Bostic’s openness to skipping in November (admittedly per his dot plot) but still easily off post-data lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 46bp Dec, 65bp Jan and 118bp June.
  • Today’s Fedspeak sees focus on two of the most hawkish members with Gov. Bowman and possibly Logan. Bowman of course dissented against last month’s 50bp cut, preferring to cut by 25bp, and we haven’t heard from her since the stronger than expected payrolls and CPI reports.
  • Logan said on Wed (day before CPI) that she favored a “more gradual path” back to normal for rates as she saw “meaningful risk” that inflation could stick above 2%.
  • A dovish Goolsbee has already spoken on two separate occasions since CPI yesterday, saying the Fed must focus on both sides of the dual mandate with him not seeing convincing evidence the economy is overheating.
  • 0945ET – Goolsbee (’25) gives opening remarks.
  • 1045ET – Logan (non-voter) in panel discussion on Women in Financial Services conf (just Q&A)
  • 1310ET – Gov. Bowman (voter) speaks on community banking (text + Q&A)
  • Further ahead, Gov. Waller (voter) will be worth watching with a speech on the economic outlook at 1500ET on Monday. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold within yesterday’s ranges ahead of PPI, giving back some of the hawkish reaction to Bostic’s openness to skipping in November (admittedly per his dot plot) but still easily off post-data lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 46bp Dec, 65bp Jan and 118bp June.
  • Today’s Fedspeak sees focus on two of the most hawkish members with Gov. Bowman and possibly Logan. Bowman of course dissented against last month’s 50bp cut, preferring to cut by 25bp, and we haven’t heard from her since the stronger than expected payrolls and CPI reports.
  • Logan said on Wed (day before CPI) that she favored a “more gradual path” back to normal for rates as she saw “meaningful risk” that inflation could stick above 2%.
  • A dovish Goolsbee has already spoken on two separate occasions since CPI yesterday, saying the Fed must focus on both sides of the dual mandate with him not seeing convincing evidence the economy is overheating.
  • 0945ET – Goolsbee (’25) gives opening remarks.
  • 1045ET – Logan (non-voter) in panel discussion on Women in Financial Services conf (just Q&A)
  • 1310ET – Gov. Bowman (voter) speaks on community banking (text + Q&A)
  • Further ahead, Gov. Waller (voter) will be worth watching with a speech on the economic outlook at 1500ET on Monday.