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Fed Funds Clear 25bp Hike For March

STIR
  • Fed Funds futures moved lower overnight to price a hike of more than 25bps at the March meeting for the first time, currently ~27bps.
  • The CME sees Mar 16 probabilities of: no hike (3%), 25bp hike (91.6%), 50bp hike (5.4%).
  • NY Fed’s Williams said Fri pm that the Fed is “approaching a decision” to take the next step to “gradually bring the target range… from its current very-low level back to more normal levels” (broadly in line with various other FOMC speakers).
  • After a pause for MLK Jr Day, a slew of corporate earnings results could be a key driver from tomorrow onwards, in what is a lighter week for data with various housing releases and the first Jan business surveys.
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