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Fed Funds Dec'22 Pricing 5bps Off Pre-Invasion

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures pricing sits higher today at 31.5bs for the March meeting, 87bps for June and 158bps for Dec, the latter just 5bps off pre-invasion levels.
  • Waller late yesterday: a 50bp hike is on the table in March if incoming data show accelerating price pressures (Mester kept to 25bps as base case), sees the need for 100bp of tightening by mid-year (a la Bullard) and wants the Fed to signal a return to neutral at a ‘fast pace’. It is far too early to judge the impact of the Ukraine situation, although it does add to uncertainties and could result in a more modest round of tightening.

Fed Funds futures pricing for specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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