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Fed Funds Move Closer To Pricing First Cut In May

STIR
  • The miss for CPI inflation has seen Fed Funds implied rates slump, with any further hikes once again near fully priced out (just 1bp of cumulative hikes out to January vs 8bp pre-data) and with cut expectations surging.
  • Comparing with current levels, it sees a cumulative 20bp of cuts priced with the May meeting (from 5bp pre-CPI) which builds to 53bp of cuts with July (from 32bp) and 99bp of cuts by year-end (from 74bp).
  • The 4.34% implied effective rate for Dec’24 is now very nearly three full 25bp cuts below the 5-5.25% median dot from the September SEP.

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