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Fed Funds Peak Pulled Forward From March To Feb

STIR FUTURES
  • With US cash markets close for Independence Day, FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures have ground higher after Friday’s V-shaped lurch on growth fears that had been exacerbated by the ISM manufacturing miss.
  • A modest firming leaves July pricing well within last week’s range at 70bps. There have been larger gains on the day beyond July, but they sit lower compared to the recent range with 123bps (+2bp) for Sep and 177bp (+4bp) to year-end.
  • The peak in rates in 2023 has been pulled forward from March into the early Feb meeting at 3.41% (183bp of hikes) with 63bps of cuts then priced to end-2023.

Source: Bloomberg

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