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Fed Funds Price 25bp July Cut From Current Levels

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes extend a broadly one way push lower since the start of the US session, with now just 10bps for the May FOMC to a terminal 4.91% (-2bp).
  • It fully prices a 25bp cut from current levels for July (-25.5bp, -6bp on the day) – which if realised would see a rare four-month gap from the last hike to first cut (hasn’t been under 5 months since the early 1980s) – before three cuts from current levels to 4.03% for year-end (-15bp).
  • The degree to which Dec’23 rate expectations have fallen today has now eclipsed ECB pricing which had earlier taken the lead.


Source: Bloomberg

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