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Fed Hike Expectations Firm For Upcoming Meetings

STIR FUTURES
  • The Fed Funds rate implied by FOMC-dated futures has ground higher for nearer-term meetings, in a slight probe of Powell’s 50bp on the table over the next couple meetings (56bp Jun, 104bp Jul before 146bp for Sep).
  • 200bp of hikes over the five meetings to year-end, leaving an implied rate of 2.84%, back at levels from Tuesday but still 14bp below the Wed high.
  • Payrolls preview: https://marketnews.com/markets/pdfs/mni-us-payrolls-preview-labor-supply-seen-limiting-jobs-gains
  • Post-FOMC Fedspeak kicked off by NY Fed’s Williams (voter) at 0915ET followed by Kashkari (’23), Bostic (’24) before late appearances from Bullard (’22), Waller (voter) and Daly (’24).

Fed Funds rates implied by FOMC-dated futuresSource: Bloomberg

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