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Fed Hike Expectations In Wait And See Mode

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed hike expectations sit little changed from yesterday, with the 202bps over the five meetings to year-end showing little reaction to equivalent ECB-dated OIS firming to 131bps (between 124-128bp for much of yesterday) on the way to 199bps with the May’23 meeting.
  • Nearer-term meetings sit at a familiar 51bp for Jun, 102bp for Jul and 143bp for Sep, the latter cooling from highs of 145bps yesterday but within the range of the past five days.
  • Data limited to MBA mortgage apps and whole inventories today before tomorrow’s ECB decision and Friday’s US CPI.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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