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Fed Hike Expectations Pause For Breath

STIR FUTURES
  • Hike expectations are broadly as they started the NY session, with FOMC-dated Fed Funds Dec’22 pricing rising to 190bp of further hikes before dipping back to 185bps along with a broader rates rally. 43bps continues to be priced for May.
  • Today’s Fedspeak offered little new information with FOMC members who have already spoken since last weeks’ decision.
  • Further Fedspeak tomorrow from Kashkari, Waller, Evans and Bostic although only Evans (2023 voter) is ‘new’. Waller might give a more specific indication of where he sits on the dot plot having said he wants rates slightly above the 2.00-2.25% he sees as neutral by end-2022, i.e. either 1 of 3 looking for 2.25-2.5% or the sole member looking for 2.5-2.75%.
  • Also tomorrow, durable goods for Feb and the preliminary PMI for March.

Source: Bloomberg

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