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Fed Hike Expectations Within Week's Range Pre-FOMC

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes sit within the week’s range ahead of today’s FOMC decision, with 79bps priced.
  • Later meetings are off yesterday’s highs but still see 4.21% for Dec’22, a terminal 4.49% Mar’23 and 44bps of cuts to 4.05% come Dec’23, broadly preserving the ~50bp parallel shift higher in terminal and Dec’23 points since the US CPI beat.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hike for Sep FOMC (white) and rates at specific meetings thereafterSource: Bloomberg

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