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Fed Hike Path In Friday's Range As ISM Eyed

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes cool from late Fri levels having seemingly been dragged higher by the front end seeing particularly large month/quarter-end moves.
  • Friday’s MNI Chicago PMI miss still weighs on the 67bp for Nov (adding downside risk to ISM today) but less impact further out with 4.24% for Dec’22, 4.47% terminal Mar’23 and 4.24% Dec’23 in last week's post-BoE gilt purchase range.
  • Fedspeak limited to opening remarks from Bostic (’24) before NY Fed’s Williams late at 1510ET with text and Q&A.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rate at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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